U.S. Solar Module Costs Approach Global Prices
U.S.-made solar modules are nearing cost parity with imports from Asia due to federal subsidies and changing trade dynamics, a new report finds.
U.S.-manufactured solar modules are approaching cost parity with non-Chinese imports, according to a new industry forecast. The Q2 2026 PV Price Forecasting Report from technical advisory firm Intertek CEA projects a strategic realignment across global manufacturing hubs through 2027.
Global solar installations are forecast to remain constrained in the low-600 gigawatt range for 2026 and 2027. This marks a slowdown from roughly 650 GW in 2025. The report states this is primarily driven by a stagnating domestic Chinese market, reinforced by the phase-out of demand-side subsidies, tighter energy consumption rules, and new efficiency standards.
Regional Manufacturing Cost Analysis
Integrated production costs for solar modules show a significant global spread. Intertek CEA's regional cost modeling reveals the following figures for TOPCon module production.
| Region | Production Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| China | Under $0.12 | Global floor for fully integrated production. |
| Southeast Asia & India | Near $0.17 | For TOPCon technology. |
| United States | Exceeds $0.37 | Unsubsidized cost using U.S. Cells. |
| United States (Net) | Approximately $0.21 | After applying Section 45X manufacturing credits. |
The Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credits are a key factor. These federal subsidies effectively eliminate much of the historical cost penalty for domestic U.S. Manufacturing. They narrow the net cost gap between U.S.-made modules and non-Chinese imports from Southeast Asia or India to just one to three cents per watt.
Policy Drivers and Trade Dynamics
Trade policy and domestic mandates are dictating regional pricing. In the U.S., module prices are projected to stay elevated as buyers await final clarity on tariff structures from the ongoing polysilicon Section 232 investigation. Expanding non-duty ingot, wafer, and cell capacity throughout 2026 and 2027 is expected to alleviate some acute procurement bottlenecks.
In India, pricing is increasingly governed by domestic procurement rules. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II, which requires domestic module makers to use domestic cells for public tenders, is officially in effect. Indian module prices are expected to linger near $0.20 per watt due to grandfathered 2026 projects, but developers face near-term cell supply shortages for late-2026 and 2027 deliveries. A secondary cost adjustment is anticipated in 2028 when ALMM List-III mandates the use of domestically produced wafers.
Logistics and Global Market Shifts
Elevated freight costs continue to compound baseline module pricing globally. The report links logistics disruptions to ongoing Middle East conflict and early peak-season surcharges. These factors have pushed ocean freight rates above $0.01 per watt, adding cost pressures to cross-border deliveries through 2027.
Chinese suppliers are simultaneously pivoting toward margin expansion. Domestic policy in China is accelerating domestic price increases, which Intertek CEA expects to spill over into international markets. Major Chinese manufacturers are guiding toward reduced export volumes while actively pursuing higher-margin international sales. This shift occurs as they push to restore profit margins following an extended period of price compression.
