TOPCon Module Pricing Holds Amid U.S. Trade Policy
Solar module prices in China and the U.S. Showed divergent trends ahead of Section 232 enforcement, with U.S. Spot prices stable and Chinese domestic prices rising slightly. The market faces uncertainty as U.S. Customs decisions on imported-cell pricing could allow modules to sell below the $0.38/W minimum import price.
TOPCon module pricing faces pressure from U.S. Trade policy uncertainty and a sharp decline in Chinese solar installations. Since the start of August, domestic prices for mainstream TOPCon modules in China rose around 3.4%, while imported module spot prices in the U.S. Held steady ahead of Section 232 minimum import prices taking effect on December 4. FOB China prices for these modules remained flat at $0.108 per watt.
U.S. Module Pricing Details
U.S. Delivered duty paid prices for TOPCon modules 645W and below were unchanged at $0.290 per watt. Quotes for U.S.-assembled TOPCon modules using imported cells, however, rose 0.63% to $0.321 per watt DDP. Pricing for cargoes from different regions varied widely.
| Origin | DDP U.S. Price per Watt |
|---|---|
| Southeast Asia | $0.277/W |
| India | $0.332/W |
Post-December supplier pricing in the U.S. Remained unsettled. A distributor said their company had not yet received firm prices as suppliers waited to see competitor pricing.
Chinese Installation Decline
Weak domestic demand in China pressured module prices. The country's solar installations dropped more than 57.9% year-over-year for the January-August period, with cumulative additions reaching 97.19 gigawatts. August additions alone totaled 11.04 GW, down 21.6% month-on-month from July. Manufacturers emphasized overseas sales due to this weak domestic demand. Some industry participants said the weak demand made local prices more sensitive to market fluctuations, and lower-priced, less-efficient modules remained available.
Trade Policy Uncertainty
The core uncertainty revolves around U.S. Customs treatment of imported cells under the new Section 232 rules. A source at a U.S. Manufacturer questioned whether U.S. Customs and Border Protection would accept imported-cell transactions priced at the $0.22 per watt cell minimum import price plus the 15% tariff. If accepted, that treatment could allow U.S.-assembled modules to sell below the $0.38 per watt module minimum import price. In contrast, a policy source at a major supplier anticipated strict enforcement of the new price controls and argued that workarounds would undermine the mandate’s intent.
This policy source believed imports could retain cost competitiveness even if U.S. Assemblers sold at $0.38 per watt due to slim assembly margins. An early-stage project developer believed U.S. Customers remained in contact with overseas suppliers, expecting those discussions to continue while import prices stayed close to U.S.-assembled levels. The distributor expected import demand to disappear, believing officials would raise tariffs further if controls failed. Beyond trade policy, the developer expected the industry to go on hiatus after the final safe-harbor push for Investment Tax Credit eligibility. Forward pricing also showed shifts, with DDP indications for TOPCon modules in the first and second quarters of 2027 assessed at $0.345 per watt, up from $0.29 per watt in July. The market continues to monitor U.S. Customs policy decisions regarding imported-cell transactions and their effect on module pricing below $0.38 per watt.
