Wood Mackenzie forecasts 34 GW Latin America
Wood Mackenzie sharply raised its Latin America energy storage forecast, projecting cumulative capacity to grow from 2.5 GW in 2025 to 34 GW in 2035.
Wood Mackenzie expects energy storage deployment in Latin America to accelerate sharply over the next decade. In a new report, the consultancy forecasts cumulative capacity to increase from 2.5 GW in 2025 to 34 GW in 2035, representing a 13.6-fold increase.
The new forecast is a substantial revision. In September 2025, Wood Mackenzie projected the market would reach 23 GW in 2034. The firm now identifies grid constraints, rising renewable energy curtailment, and auctions as the main drivers. "Latin America is no longer a frontier market for energy storage, it is an active market," said Pamela Morales of Wood Mackenzie. She noted deployment stalls without comprehensive regulatory frameworks.
Regional Market Leaders
Chile remains the regional leader with the largest operational battery projects. High renewable curtailment supports investment in longer-duration systems. However, Wood Mackenzie identifies a new risk: price cannibalization in northern Chile as battery capacity increases, which could reduce revenues from energy arbitrage.
Mexico is at an inflection point driven by energy policy. Wood Mackenzie estimates new mechanisms with Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) could result in more than 3 GW of capacity awarded through 2030. Mexico's call for strategic projects set an indicative target of 935 MW of standalone storage, all with three-hour durations. The Electricity Sector Development Plan includes a storage requirement equivalent to 30% of new renewable project capacity.
Upcoming Auctions and Targets
Brazil is preparing for a change in scale with its first capacity reserve auctions for large-scale battery systems scheduled for December 2026. Contracts will run for 15 years, with supply beginning August 2028.
| Auction Date | Project Type | Power Capacity | Duration | Supply Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2026 | Meets domestic manufacturing requirements | At least 30 MW | 4 hours | Aug 1, 2028 |
| Dec 4, 2026 | Open to other systems | At least 30 MW | 4 hours | Aug 1, 2028 |
Argentina has established a standalone storage market supported by auctions in little over a year. The Wood Mackenzie report puts recent awards at around 1.3 GW, while official data totals 1,413.5 MW. These projects aim to ease grid constraints and provide services during transmission upgrades.
The Dominican Republic is noted for its developed regulatory framework. Regulations require new renewable energy projects of at least 20 MWac to include storage equivalent to at least 50% of their installed capacity, for a minimum of four hours. Wood Mackenzie puts the country's storage target at 500 MW by 2030.
Obstacles to Growth
Despite the expected growth, Wood Mackenzie identifies the lack of bankable revenue models as the region's main obstacle. In many markets, remuneration for ancillary services, energy arbitrage, or capacity remains undefined. Financing constraints, permitting delays, and a limited pool of long-term buyers add further challenges.
Morales said countries with bankable remuneration mechanisms will be better placed to convert project pipelines into operational assets over the next decade.
